西元1845年雲林口湖發生嚴重之風暴潮事件，造成萬人喪生，為台灣歷史上最嚴重之風暴潮事件。為重建1845口湖風暴潮事件，本文發展風暴潮影響強度分析法(SSIIA)。該法以現行於中央氣象局之COMCOT風暴潮模式為基礎，進行大量單元颱風之風暴潮模擬，以建立颱風位置對風暴潮之SSIIA敏感關係圖。為重建颱風路徑，本研究發展颱風路徑對風暴潮影響分析法。該法透過SSIIA之分析結果，進行風暴潮潮高、最大溢淹高程與平均溢淹高程之綜合評分，以求得可能之颱風路徑組合，並由該結果建立1845年事件之可能情境，以及該情境所造成之風暴潮和溢淹範圍。本研究所建立之分析方法，可系統性分析沿海低窪地區之風暴潮溢淹潛在災情，有助於進行風暴潮風險評估及災防規劃。

關鍵字：風暴潮影響強度分析法SSIIA、颱風路徑、1867口湖風暴潮、COMCOT風暴潮模式、風暴潮重建

In 1845, a severe storm surge attacked Kouhu, Yunlin, and made 10,000 death toll. This event is the worst storm surge event in the history of Taiwan. To reconstruct this storm surge event, this study proposes an analysis method, the Storm Surge Impact Intensity Analysis (SSIIA) method. The CWB storm surge operational model, COMCOT-SS, is adopted for calculating the storm surge excited by each unit typhoon established in the SSIIA method. From the results of SSIIA, the impact intensity map which refers the typhoon location to the storm surge is established. To reconstruct the typhoon path of the historical event, a new algorithm is developed to analysis the relationship between the typhoon path and the storm surge by using the results from SSIIA's in terms of the surge height, maximum inundation elevation, and mean inundation elevation to obtain the possible typhoon tracks for the 1845 event and the inundation area. The method proposed in this research can systematically analyze the potential hazard of storm surge inundation in the coastal areas. It is useful for performing the storm surge risk assessment and planning the hazard mitigation strategy.

Key words: Storm Surge Impact Intensity Analysis Method (SSIIA), Typhoon Track, 1845 Kouhu Storm Surge Event, COMCOT-SS, Reconstruction of Storm Surge